Tuesday, 8 April 2014

Champions League Quarter Finals 2nd leg!

It's the Champions League Quarter Finals second leg ties and some are finely in the balance as Europe's top teams seek a semi-final spot.
Chelsea v PSG - Chelsea will be disappointed conceding that third goal to PSG in the first leg and going down 3-1, but a 2-0 victory at Stamford Bridge would take them through and this scoreline is surely what Mourinho will be playing for. Ibrahimovic is probably out of the PSG team with injury, but Chelsea also face a crisis up front with Eto'o doubtful and Torres left out of the first leg team. Chelsea are certainly not out of this tie with that away goal scored in the first leg. 2-0 to Chelsea is priced at 8.00 (7/1)
Dortmund v Real Madrid - Last year's finalists Dortmund went down 3-0 at Madrid, and this tie is surely all but over. The bookies are expecting over 2.5 goals in this one (1.53 (8/15)), and both teams to score (1.50 (1/2)), so again expect a lively game. It's hard to see Real Madrid not scoring, so Dortmund will have to try score 3 or 4 to take this tie to extra time, which may well be their downfall as they attack and go for goals whilst Real hit them on the counter attack.
Bayern Munich v Man Utd - Man Utd are a massive 12.00 (11/1) to win away at Bayern! They may take some hope from the fact that Man City have gone to Bayern this season and have won, and Bayern lost their 53 match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga at the weekend away at Augsburg, but Bayern are obviously strong favourites. With Bayern with that away goal from the first leg then Man Utd must score in this game to have a chance of going through. It's therefore unusual to see the bookies pricing both teams to score so high at 2.10 (11/10) - we think United will score, but Bayern's attacking force will overcome United on the night.
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona - Atletico got an excellent 1-1 result away at the Camp Nou in the first leg and will consider their chances of defeating Barcelona at home to be very strong. Atletico still sit top of La Liga, and are as strong as anyone at home. Atletico also have the away goal to their advantage so expect a tight game and perhaps this tie to go all the way to extra time (a 1-1 scoreline is priced at 6.50 (11/2)). It could be very close in Madrid on Wednesday night!


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Saturday, 5 April 2014

Nine Myths and Mistakes in Sports Betting -part 1

Don't even think about investing in sports before reading this!
Avoid the amateur mistakes others make when losing money in sports betting!

Myth #1: Win Rate

Should the success of sports prediction services be measured in “win rate” or profit? Can you go to the store and pay with a high “win rate”, or would you rather prefer the cash... long-term profit is the only measure of quality in a sports prediction service. Win rate is one of the most irrelevant statistics in sports investing, often used by handicappers as a trap to lure new accounts.
As you know, many professional handicappers offer high win rates of up to 99%, luring novice bettors into their scam. 99% accuracy for sports picks is a myth, while accuracy rates of 53-60% are considered to be elite among professional handicappers. A high win rate does not guarantee profit, but seems important to the untrained eye.
A high win rate does not guarantee profit. The only proper gauge of the success of a sports investor should be long-term profit and bankroll growth. Successful system betting approaches can turn a profit with win rates as low as 37%. Conversely, sports investors can win the vast majority of picks and still lose money. The only long-term measurement for success is profit, particularly when money management principles are properly applied to a winning system.
Don’t be fooled by services featuring a high win rate! Profit is all that matters!

Myth #2: The “All or Nothing” Approach

A common mistake among sports investors new to prediction services is the expectation of immediate gains. Sports investing must be viewed as a business with long-term goals. Short-term “all or nothing” approaches lead to lost profits and aggressive mistakes. Chasing losses with poor money management is no way to approach sports betting. Amateur bettors are doomed to fail in any business with an all or nothing strategy.
If opening a restaurant, would you close down if the first few days didn’t bring profits? Sports investing needs to be viewed with the same mentality as operating a business. Those that completely revamp their approach to chase short-term losses are the restaurant owners that shut down after only a few days. Sports investing is a process that requires long-term commitment. Expecting substantial gains without a long-term mindset will only result in failure. Inconsistency is the equivalent of getting hired for a project and asking to be paid a few hours into the job.
The only way to be profitable in sports investing is to adopt a long-term mindset and remain consistent. Those that fail to understand this concept are doomed to fail. Sports investors with short-term goals will jump from one capper to the next expecting wins every day. When they fail to get daily winners, they will inevitably give up with a net loss. This is a sure road to failure!
Remember to treat sports investing as a process and consider your results on a monthly or season-to-season scale. By doing so, you will not chase short-term losses and can protect the profits that come from following proven sports handicappers. Those that adopt a long-term strategy will be able to manage their way through losses to enjoy the last laugh when they cash in each season

Myth #3: “The Fix” and Insider Information

The concept of “the fix” is a widespread belief amongst amateur bettors to explain away improbable sports outcomes. Occasionally, accusations of a fix even make it into respected books and magazines. While there have been a few scandals over recent years involving point shaving and corrupted referees, the fix has largely been eradicated from major professional sports. Dirty money no longer talks like it once did in team sports.
Over the last 15 years, the salaries of professional athletes have skyrocketed. Important players, who would need to be bribed or corrupted to fix the outcome of a game, make millions of dollars each season. Players stand to make even more from endorsements and advertisements, which would be lost if they were ever caught tampering with the integrity of a game. Moreover, it would cost a substantial amount of money to bribe and corrupt multiple superstar players. The amount being wagered would be so large that multiple sportsbooks would need to be used to cover dirty investments and the money won would not go unnoticed. In the end, the system is unlikely to exist on such a large scale in modern sports. Additionally, the multiple Z-Code experts consistently generating profit would not be able to do so if the games weren’t honest. In the end, “the fix” is largely a thing of the past.
“Insider information” is another common myth that scheming handicappers use to attract clients. The promise of insider information is more realistic than the idea of a fix, but just as mythical. Many professional handicapping services claim to have secret information behind their success. If they win, the user feels privileged to be connected to insider information. When the service loses, the service claims their inside information changed at the last minute and they were unable to relay the message in time. This is a road to hell.
There is no insider information that can be relied on consistently. Even if your brother is a professional basketball player, you are unlikely to receive special information that will regularly influence the outcome of a game. Insider information is little more than a lowlife scam used by handicappers to attract new clients.
Virtually all successful sports bettors work hard at handicapping. We don’t simply roll out of bed and make bets. We don’t utilize “inside information” to analyze games. The information used to analyze games is readily available to anyone that makes the effort to find it. To profit from handicapping, you should expect to make a similar effort and not expect “magic fixes”. Any services promising otherwise are dishonest.

to be continued...

Friday, 4 April 2014

Genius or crazy?

I just came across this crazy article on akin alabi's blog that is worth sharing. 
There is this chap who palced a total of 400,000 naira on 7 bets on both teams to score in the match involving chelsea and psg that took place last Wednesday.
And he won all of them , this chap sure is something else...
Read the stuff below:

One of the most popular bets on NairaBET.com is the both teams to score option. That means when the two teams playing score at least a goal each you have won. It does not matter who eventually wins the game.
Anyway, there is this dude who was feeling like a genius and strolled into one of our shops. He staked N400,000 (7 different bets) on last night’s game between Chelsea and Paris St Germaine that both team would score at odds of 1.95

He got a total of N787,800.00 in return. It wouldn’t have been up to that but we topped it up with a token as bonus. We are the only bookie that gives bonus on winnings for single games.

Tell me what you think of this guy? I for sure don't have the 'balls" to place this kind of bet.... at least not yet..


Tuesday, 1 April 2014


It's the Champions League Quarter Finals and the competition is really hotting up this year with Europe's top teams slugging out with each  other. To add to the intrigue, some of the teams playing for a semi-final place are still fighting it out in their own leagues for their respective titles except for Bayern Munich who have already clinched the Bundersliga title with several games to spare. They are considered favorites to retain the champions league trophy!

Let's see what this quarter finals have in store for us -the punters!

Man Utd v Bayern Munich - Out of form Man Utd look like they will face an uphill task against once again crowned Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich. Bayern are hot favourites for the Champions League title this season and it's unbelievable to see a team go to Old Trafford as strong favourites as they are in the betting.I will expect a good game with Man Utd trying to at least play a draw which will be a good result for them considering the way the season has been for them while Bayern will want to settle things in England and possibly try take something back to Germany for the second leg.
My verict- Bayern AW or X2, BTTS 

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid - Barlceona play top of La Liga rivals Atletico Madrid in what is an intriguing tie. Atletico sit top of La Liga and both of these sides are still to play each other in a game that could decide the Spanish title. Ateltico have proven this season that they can match Barcelona and Real Madrid, so Barca would have to be very careful with this fixture. Barca must take a good win into the second leg, as Ateltico have a great chance against them if they can take a draw or small loss into that second leg.
My verdict- Barcelona HW or 1X

PSG v Chelsea - Most bookies are expecting a low scoring game and both of these legs may be quite  tight. PSG are very good at home, and play well at scoring a single goal and defending it. The way the odds are set up the bookies really do not expect Chelsea to score, but they've been on great form this season and with their loss at the weekend nearly potentially writing them out of the Premier League title race,except if Liverpool decide to drop points, Mourinho will want to excel in the Champions League. Chelsea to qualify from this tie is one of the better bets of the round in our opinion.
My verdict-under 3.5 goals, BTTS

Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund - Madrid have possibly the easier of the ties of all teams in the quarter finals, but last year's finalists Dortmund won't go down  very easy. Madrid may be able to score the goals at home, but they rarely go many games without conceding too, so Dortmund have a chance of scoring here. If Dortmund can take a good result back to Germany we could see a closer tie than the bookies are pricing here.
My verdict-Madrid HW, over 1.5 goals.

My advice is bet on champions league for the fun of it if you can afford to, i often stay away from such games as most often i record loses at the end of the day but who knows some of you might get lucky.

happy punting to you all.